Apple may try to increase revenue by doing…something with third-party AI apps

During its latest earnings call, Apple did what it does best: it said very little while saying everything. Tim Cook and his team signaled that they are looking at third-party AI integrations not just as a feature set for Apple Intelligence, but as a new revenue engine. For those of us building in the AI space, the subtext is clear. The era of free-reign experimentation on iOS is likely coming to an end, replaced by a sophisticated toll booth.

The Hardware Ceiling

For years, Apple has relied on the hardware upgrade cycle to keep shareholders happy. But we have reached a point of diminishing returns. An iPhone 15 Pro isn't fundamentally different enough from an iPhone 16 for the average user to care about the silicon alone. Apple knows this. Their shift toward Services over the last five years was the first phase of their survival plan. Now, we are entering the second phase: the AI Tax.

Apple Intelligence is currently being marketed as a value-add for the hardware, a reason to buy the newest device. But the real money isn't in the local models running on your phone. The real money is in the gateway. By positioning Siri as the primary orchestrator for other, more powerful AI agents, Apple is inserting itself as the middleman for every meaningful AI transaction a user makes.

The Broker Model

When Apple mentions "opportunities" regarding third-party AI apps, they aren't talking about collaboration for the sake of the ecosystem. They are talking about a revenue-sharing model that likely mirrors the App Store's 30% cut, but applied to subscription-based API calls. If you are building a specialized LLM for legal research or a high-end image generator, Apple wants to be the interface through which your customers access your tool.

This is the Broker Model. Apple provides the user base and the privacy layer, and in exchange, they take a piece of the recurring revenue. For a founder, this is a double-edged sword. On one hand, the distribution is unmatched. On the other hand, your margins are being squeezed before you even write your first line of production code. If you are already paying OpenAI or Anthropic for API access, and then giving Apple a 30% cut of the user's subscription, what is left for your burn rate?

The Technical Moat

Apple's leverage comes from deep system integration. A third-party AI app is just an icon on a screen. Apple Intelligence is the screen. If Apple allows a user to invoke your AI tool via a system-wide prompt, they are providing a level of friction-less access that a standalone app can't match. They will argue that this "premium placement" justifies a premium fee.

Builders need to be wary of becoming features rather than platforms. If your entire business model relies on being a plug-in for Apple's ecosystem, you don't own your customers; Apple is just renting them to you. We've seen this play out with mobile gaming and social media apps. When the platform changes the rules, the builders are the ones who get crushed.

What This Means for Founders

If you are in the middle of a seed round or scaling an AI product, you need to look at your unit economics with an "Apple Tax" lens. If your business model breaks when a platform takes 30%, you don't have a business; you have a hobby. We are moving away from the "move fast and break things" phase of AI and into the "regulatory and platform capture" phase.

Apple is essentially building a curated mall for AI. They want the high-end tenants who bring in the big spenders. If you're building a utility that can be easily replicated by Apple’s internal teams, you’re in trouble. Your only defense is proprietary data or a workflow so specific that Apple wouldn't bother building it themselves.

The Skeptic's View

There is a version of this story where Apple fumbles the execution. Their history with third-party integrations (think SiriKit) is spotty at best. Developers have long complained that Apple's walled garden is too restrictive for truly innovative software. If Apple tries to take too big a cut while providing too little technical flexibility, builders will focus their efforts on Android or web-first platforms where they keep more of their earnings.

However, Apple's user base is the most lucrative in the world. They are the people who actually pay for software. That's the leverage Apple holds over every AI founder. You can't afford to ignore them, and they know it.

The Takeaway

Apple's hint at third-party AI revenue is a warning shot. They are moving to monetize the flow of intelligence the same way they monetized the flow of apps. For builders, the strategy is clear: build for the user, not the platform. Ensure your value proposition exists outside of a Siri shortcut, or prepare to pay the toll for the foreseeable future. The gold rush is over; the landlords are moving in.

Read the original at TechCrunch AI →